An early Lunar New Year helped push global air cargo volumes up 7% year over year (YoY) in January, marking the strongest growth since January 2025, according to a Feb. 6 report from Xeneta.

However, despite the spike in demand, air cargo spot rates declined slightly, highlighting continued volatility in the global air freight market.

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January Air Cargo Market Snapshot

7% YoY increase in global air cargo volumes
$2.56/kg average spot rate, down 1% YoY
57% dynamic load factor, up 1 percentage point

The dynamic load factor — which measures cargo volume, weight and available capacity — suggests relatively stable capacity utilization despite softer pricing.

Why the Lunar New Year Boost May Be Temporary

The timing of the Lunar New Year significantly impacts Asia air cargo exports, often distorting January data.

In 2025, celebrations began on January 28. In 2026, they start on February 15. As a result, much of January’s air cargo strength is likely calendar-driven rather than reflecting sustained underlying demand, according to Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw.

Because Asia dominates global air freight volumes, January data can be volatile. Analysts suggest that global air cargo rates, rather than volumes alone, may provide clearer demand signals — especially when currency fluctuations affect pricing trends.

Air Cargo Spot Rates: Trade Lane Performance

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While global average spot rates declined modestly, key trade lanes experienced sharper drops:

✈️ Northeast Asia to U.S.

$4.28/kg, down 3% YoY
Down 17% month over month

The dip was partly attributed to changes in freighter capacity.

✈️ Southeast Asia to North America

$4.88/kg, down 12% YoY
Down 16% month over month

These declines point to easing rate pressure across major trans-Pacific air cargo routes.

China–U.S. E-Commerce Air Cargo Volumes Continue to Fall

One of the biggest drags on the air freight market remains declining China-to-U.S. e-commerce exports.

E-commerce shipments from China to the U.S. dropped more than 50% YoY for the third straight month in December
Full-year 2025 volumes were down 28% YoY

The ongoing impact of the U.S. de minimis ban continues to reduce low-value shipments, which historically account for 20%–25% of annual global air cargo volumes.

To offset losses in the U.S. market, China-based e-commerce platforms are increasingly expanding into Europe, where import costs remain more favourable.

Q1 Air Cargo Outlook: Red Sea Shipping Could Shift Demand

The Q1 air cargo outlook remains uncertain. A potential return of ocean freight services to the Red Sea and Suez Canal could reshape modal demand in Q2.

Some ocean carriers are cautiously resuming Red Sea transits:

Maersk restarted structural Red Sea operations in January via its MECL service connecting the Middle East, India and the U.S. East Coast.
CMA CGM, however, reversed course and rerouted shipments around the Cape of Good Hope.

Despite these moves, a rapid shift from air freight back to ocean shipping appears unlikely in Q1 2026. Continued instability in the Red Sea shipping corridor may sustain demand for air cargo as shippers prioritize reliability and speed.

Bottom Line: Strong Volumes, Soft Pricing

January’s 7% increase in global air cargo volumes signals short-term strength driven by the early Lunar New Year. However, declining air cargo spot rates, falling China–U.S. e-commerce shipments, and ongoing trade lane volatility suggest that the global air freight market remains fragile heading into Q1 2026.

Early Lunar New Year Drives 7% Surge in Global Air Cargo Volumes, but Spot Rates Slip